Zachary Chesler's Blog

Prediction making is tricky business.  No one really knows what will happen.  But it is fun to speculate.  As one can see from my blog, I rarely add an entry.  I save these opportunities for when I really get an itch to write something.  I think last night’s episode of Mad Men really got me moving, when we saw/heard Don Draper write for the first time in a personal journal of sorts.

Lately, I have been having that itch, but I just couldn’t figure out what I wanted to write about to scratch it.  At the same time, I have been spending a lot of time thinking about what the next 2-5 years will look like with respect to technology for the masses. So, I am going to be bold and write about what I think the future might resemble.  I could definitely be wrong on some of these.  But that is ok, this post is more just for me to see how well I do.  So, here we go (in no particular order).

1. Apple vs. Google
   The next few years, maybe even decade will be Apple and Google slugging it out.  To me, iPhone vs. Android is today’s equivalent of the the Mac vs. PC battle of the 90’s.  But, this competition will go way beyond the mobile space, into TV, and other media services.
2. TV is about to drastically change
   The way we think about what television is will start to be entirely different over the next 18-24 months.  TV and the Internet become one (really this time). A common interface will aggregate media from multiple sources.  The content you pay your cable network for may be pulled into that common interface (if you want it to be), but 3-5 years out you will know people that don’t have cable anymore, just like you know people that no longer have landlines.
3. Our mobile devices become TV input devices
   You will control this “TV” with your mobile devices.  We might actually even see the first true universal remote (excluding sophisticated audio sound systems).
4. Cable companies struggle with their identity
   Cable companies will provide infrastructure, but will struggle with the fact they are no longer the only game in town with respect to distribution of television content.  And people won’t hesitate to say “take that!”
5. Netflix offers stream only accounts
   As spinning media such as CD, DVD, and Blu-ray continue to go obsolete, Netflix will offer stream only accounts without their disk service.  This might be sooner than later.  By the way, I heard in a news report it costs them something like 50 cents to bring a movie to your mailbox, and 5 cents over the Internet.
6. Verizon gets the iPhone in early 2011
   The rumors have been flying for years. But I predict the iPhone comes to the Verizon network early next year.  I have a bet with a friend on this one.  Whoever loses buys lunch.
7. Data is data…the distinction between voice, web, text, etc. disappears into just “data” usage
   Tired of paying separately (and through the nose) for text messages? That’s the biggest joke of all considering how little amount of data 140-160 characters is.  And what about minutes for voice calls?  Lame.  These are just ways to extract more money from your pocket.  It’s all data.  So, lets call it what it is and stop playing games.  I think this will happen.  Not sure exactly what it will look like.  Maybe some kind of tiered system, like small, medium, large, (and XL for business needs).
8. Facebook and lessons learned
   I realize that Facebook is going in the direction of a public offering, but I am going to go out on a limb and say they merge or get bought out in the next 5 years.  Either that, or the executives bounce out of there after the dust settles on an IPO. Why?  Although they have done what no other website has ever managed to (they get more traffic than Google people!!!), they know what happened to Friendster and MySpace before them.  They are a unique case indeed, after all would you expect such popularity among the young even after mom and grandma started posting their status updates and writing on your wall!?  But then again, people are fickle and easily bored, and something more interesting will eventually come around.
9. The fate of traditional media
   In 5 years time, newspapers, magazines, and text books finally do die, but fully resurrect in other forms.  They thank Steve Jobs for single-handedly saving their butts, although others aid in their new found glory as well.  Some niche areas continue to print newspapers and magazines on a small scale.  Paper books DO NOT die in the next 5 years.
10. What about Microsoft?
    Microsoft chugs along, doesn’t make big waves in either direction.

By Zachary Chesler